It was a case of two steps forward and two steps back last week for the international equity markets. Global equities were served a reminder of how difficult it can be bearish. Dealers are quick, what short-term gains that have made them pack up, making it difficult for rallies to build momentum. Shares shot out of the starting gate in the first half of the week, especially on a relief rally in the banking sector. The clear catalyst was the announcement by Barclays that it is notgo to the market or the government more money. This is more than anything strengthened the confidence of investors in Barclays and throughout the industry as a whole. But as impressive as today's performance, the rally must be related. Barclay's shares are still about 50% were less than two months ago.
It was not clear sailing, however, with heavy selling at the end of the week. This time, the concern are not specifically related to complex financial shortfalls.It was feared more in relation to general analysis, that the banks are not the right address for you during a recession. The house prices continue to fall on both sides of the Atlantic, rising unemployment and an increased risk of default on loans, the recession itself enough to put pressure on banks. This is before considering their dire capital adequacy positions. U.S. house prices will explore ever new lows. The 10 and 20 City indexes are about 25% from their peak and over 18%last year. House prices are now back to 2004 levels by going further if the current trend is a line judge. U.S. record near record lows in unemployment claims and the amount of housing starts to go hand in hand with job security fears cause homeowners to make what they are and will be placed on the market. The inability to obtain a mortgage on favorable terms, is obviously a significant factor.
In addition, subject to significant fluctuations, the number of US-American company announced that earnings fell belowAnalysts' expectations. 'Old to New' is a view that many have avoided during the boom years, but slowly but surely, western consumers will hold to the conviction that their affairs on a fixed budget. Microsoft's business model depends primarily on individuals and businesses to purchase new computers with updated versions of installed software. Are starting to bite with the economic crisis that consumers are not with the existing equipment or purchase of machines from the bottom of theRange. Last week, Microsoft's shares with the November lows, again circumventing the lowest level since 2000. On the other hand, to show buoyant sales figures from Apple, like holidays, the iPhone and iPod are luxury buyers are not willing to let go, not yet.
The coming week will be the lead group with economic announcements Friday's Non Farm Payroll figures fully on top of the stack. Wednesday ADP employment change provide a good control for numbers on Friday. Apart fromwe have the rate of the MPC statement on Thursday, with analysts expecting a cut of up to 1%. Speculation is also rife that the ECB follow suit later with an average of only 45 minutes. The euro was tough against the pound recently on speculation that the European Central Bank now has now choice but to follow other U.S. and UK, and cut in the direction of 1%.
The euro / dollar exchange rate has been quite tied up in the last three months of operation after a sharp drop from August. Withthe euro zone may continue in the form of interest rate cuts, we could see the euro to fall further against the dollar. No global economy is in particularly brilliant form at the moment but well, so can the euro zone will remain under pressure next year as a member stats contract with completely different rates of acceleration. Credit default swaps are used as a measure of the risk of a particular country such default on its loans. The guests are the costs for the insurance value of $ 10,000Debt of over 5 years. Last week the U.S. was at 75, while France and Germany were at 68 and 59 This could theoretically mean that the euro zone was in a better condition. Unfortunately, the risk of other nations in the euro zone is in default is much higher. Ireland was the risk level 285, Greece 283, Italy 184 and Portugal 145th
Predict a one-touch trade that will take the euro / dollar exchange rate 1.100 in the next 6 months could return 245% for concrete markets.